What if Trump decertifies the Iran deal?

Ellie Geranmayeh  ECFR  iran decertify

European countries must coordinate a vigorous response to prevent Trump from derailing the nuclear accord.

There is little doubt that President Trump seeks to undermine the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor and world powers. Despite assessments by U.S. generalsand eight reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that verify Iranian compliance, Trump claims that Iran is violating the “spirit” of the deal, and he has repeatedly threatened to either walk away or renegotiate the agreement.

Reports have emerged that in the coming days Trump is expected to ‘decertify’ Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This could have serious implications for European security interests with respect to non-proliferation objectives and the Middle East. European countries must now coordinate a more vigorous response to prevent Trump and the US Congress from derailing the nuclear accord.

What does ‘decertification’ entail?

Unlike in Europe, the US administration has a domestic legal requirement to ‘certify’ every 90 days that Iran is adhering to the nuclear deal. This law, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (INRA), was introduced by Congress to increase oversight from the legislative branch over the implementation of the JCPOA. Trump has already issued such certifications twice but has strongly indicated he is unlikely to do so again at the next deadline on 15 October ….continua a leggere 

“Focus Mediterraneo allargato”

approfondimento ISPI

MED_allargato_copertinaAnche nei primi mesi del 2017, nell’area del Mediterraneo allargato permangono conflittualità e incertezze. La riduzione del controllo territoriale e militare da parte dello Stato islamico è senza dubbio l’elemento più significativo dell’evoluzione del contesto regionale. Tuttavia, al di là del contesto sirio–iracheno, nei prossimi mesi importanti consultazioni elettorali e referendarie sono attese in tre paesi chiave della regione – Algeria, Iran e Turchia – con implicazioni che in alcuni casi vanno ben oltre l’assetto interno.Questo numero del Focus, a cura di Valeria Talbot, dedica l’Approfondimento al ruolo dell’Unione europea nella crisi siriana. Proprio ieri si è conclusa a Bruxelles la conferenza co–organizzata da Ue e Onu sul futuro della Siria e della regione. A partire dall’analisi della situazione sul campo e del ruolo esercitato finora dall’Ue, l’Approfondimento ha individuato possibili linee di azione future per la stabilizzazione e la ricostruzione del paese.

 

Il «problema infernale» del nuovo disordine mondiale

–di , , , , il Sole24ore

Nel suo libro “A Problem from Hell”: America and the Age of Genocide (ed. italiana “Voci dall’inferno: l’America e l’era del genocidio”, Baldini Castoldi Dalai, 2004 ), che uscì nel 2002 e vinse il Premio Pulitzer l’anno successivo, Samantha Power condannava l’inazione degli Stati Uniti nel prevenire o fermare alcune delle peggiori stragi etniche del ventesimo secolo. Come, però, lei stessa…continua a leggere

How Indonesia Beat Back Terrorism—for Now

atlanticURI FRIEDMAN -The Atlantic

One theory for why ISIS hasn’t gained traction in the world’s largest Muslim-majority country

There tends to be more focus on why terrorist groups flourish in certain countries than why they fail in others. But Jonathan Tepperman, the managing editor of Foreign Affairs, has just investigated the latter question. In his new book The Fix—a series of case studies of government successes ranging from Canada’s welcoming immigration policies to Mexico’s triumph over political gridlock—he examines Indonesia, which boasts the largest Muslim population in the world.

And he makes a striking claim at a time when terrorism seems to be spreading: While small-scale attacks occasionally occur in the country, “The big truth is that Indonesia has come close to effectively eliminating the threat of extremist violence” from Islamic terrorist groups. Continua a leggere

Russian futures: horizon 2025

Report – No26 – 07 April 2016 edited by Nicu Popescu, Hiski Haukkala-  EUISSPages_from_Report_26_Russia_Future_online._933cc4e5b6

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Predicting Russia’s future is a perilous exercise. Many, indeed perhaps most, of those who have ventured to make such predictions in the past have erred in one way or another. At the moment the danger of getting things wrong is perhaps particularly high since quite a number of short-term uncertainties with long-term consequences for the European continent – in both Russia and the EU – could make the next few years, let alone the next decade, radically different. From regional wars, refugees and their impact on the EU, to the falling oil price and Russia’s infatuation with military power as a quick fix to its foreign or domestic policy problems – the strategic environment is not simply unpredictable, but dangerously volatile.

India-Pakistan Relations and Regional Stability

India and Pakistan have considerable scope to build on the various confidence-building measures that have been negotiated in the past decade and a half, especially in the areas of trade and economic cooperation.

This essay reviews the current state of India-Pakistan relations and examines the prospects for bilateral and regional cooperation between the two South Asian neighbors. Continua a leggere