What if Trump decertifies the Iran deal?

Ellie Geranmayeh  ECFR  iran decertify

European countries must coordinate a vigorous response to prevent Trump from derailing the nuclear accord.

There is little doubt that President Trump seeks to undermine the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by his predecessor and world powers. Despite assessments by U.S. generalsand eight reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that verify Iranian compliance, Trump claims that Iran is violating the “spirit” of the deal, and he has repeatedly threatened to either walk away or renegotiate the agreement.

Reports have emerged that in the coming days Trump is expected to ‘decertify’ Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This could have serious implications for European security interests with respect to non-proliferation objectives and the Middle East. European countries must now coordinate a more vigorous response to prevent Trump and the US Congress from derailing the nuclear accord.

What does ‘decertification’ entail?

Unlike in Europe, the US administration has a domestic legal requirement to ‘certify’ every 90 days that Iran is adhering to the nuclear deal. This law, the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act of 2015 (INRA), was introduced by Congress to increase oversight from the legislative branch over the implementation of the JCPOA. Trump has already issued such certifications twice but has strongly indicated he is unlikely to do so again at the next deadline on 15 October ….continua a leggere 

Defence industrial links between EU and US

AresBy Jean Belin, Associate Professor, Chaire Economie de défense / Keith HARTLEY, Emeritus Professor of Economics, University of York / Sophie LEFEEZ, Associate Research Fellow, IRIS / Hilmar Linnenkamp, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, SWP / Martin LUNDMARK, Associate Professor in Military technology, Swedish Defence College / Hélène MASSON, Senior Research Fellow, FRS / Jean-Pierre Maulny, Deputy Director, IRIS / Alessandro R. UNGARO, Research Fellow, IAI – September 2017
European commission new initiative, with the European Defence Fund (EDF), has for objective to increase EDTIB competitiveness and to propose incentives to European cooperative programmes. It could have consequences on the EDTIB structure with further consolidation. EDTIB future will also be shaped by the external landscape, particularly with the acquisition by EU countries of US made equipment and their cooperation with US DTIB on armament programme. This report evaluates the links between EU and US DTIB, it highlights the challenge of the future relationship between US and EU on defence industrial matters in view of the EC communication on the European Defence Fund and of the PESCO. Finally, the report makes recommendations to foster the creation of a more fruitful and balanced relationship between EU and US DTIB in the future.

After the EU Global Strategy – Building resilience

csm_After_EU_Global_Strategy._Resilience_fb78b704b6coordinated by Florence GaubNicu Popescu – EUISS

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As well as introducing new decisions and actions in the field of security and defence, the EU Global Strategy (EUGS) stresses the imperative to build resilience in the EU neighbouring countries and surrounding regions.

As the EUGS approaches its first anniversary, and shortly before the release of a Joint Communication on resilience by the EEAS and the Commission, this volume, the second in the EUISS post-EUGS series, seeks to shed more light on the different definitions of the concept and how these may be applied in specific functional and geographic areas. It aims to clarify not only the meaning of the term but also its policy implications in the wider security context, showing how resilience needs be understood as a dynamic process involving a number of EU policies, external partners and local players.